FEATURED STORY
Prediction Markets Are Where Sportsbooks Were A Decade Ago
This is the year that my March Madness bracket makes me (Suraj) a billionaire…
Thanks to Kalshi.
The headline-dominating prediction market announced that it’s giving away one billion dollars to anyone who makes a perfect bracket – backed by quant trading firm SIG. It’s the first billion-dollar bracket challenge since Warren Buffett’s in 2014.
While I’m very happy with my 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds of winning a billion dollars (and Penn winning it all… this is the year), not everyone shares my enthusiasm.
The NCAA has vehemently opposed the prediction markets industry and any official affiliation with the organization – in fact, Kalshi made sure not to explicitly mention “March Madness” in its promotion.
But the NCAA is not alone.
There have been a few questions raised on prediction markets from professional leagues to members of Congress:
The NBA raised concerns to the CFTC regarding inadequate oversight, citing the lack of information-sharing mechanisms that exist with sportsbooks and the absence of pre-approval by leagues before certain markets launch (May 2025)
The NFL released a statement last week that "sports prediction markets need a robust regulatory framework, with the same high standards for integrity and consumer protection that apply to legal sports betting", despite recent CFTC guidance – AKA, we're not ready to collaborate with them (March 2026)
Senator Richard Blumenthal recently introduced a bill that would allow Congress to restrict the CFTC's regulatory control of prediction markets, drastically reducing how freely these markets currently operate (March 2026)
The knee-jerk assumption is that prediction markets are not nearly as well-positioned to collaborate with the crown jewels like sportsbooks have.
We whole-heartedly disagree.
And just an hour before we published this, the MLB announced that they signed Polymarket as their Exclusive Prediction Market Exchange Partner.
Sportsbooks were almost in the exact same position less than ten years ago – before the Supreme Court struck down Murphy v. NCAA in 2018.
Now, sports betting is more ubiquitous than GLP-1s in Hollywood.
In this newsletter, we’ll break down:
The main concerns leagues have with prediction markets
How Kalshi and Polymarket are addressing them
Why they’re on a similar trajectory as sportsbooks post-Murphy
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LEAGUES & TEAMS
Photo: WNBA, WNBPA reaches verbal CBA agreement — nearly avoiding season delays.
WNBA, WNBPA reportedly reach verbal CBA agreement, averting work stoppage (Mar. 18th)
Salary cap expected to jump from $1.5M to $7M+, avg. player salary to exceed $500K, and minimum salary expected to pass $300K, according to ESPN
Deal includes revenue sharing, league-sanctioned housing, charter flights & expanded parental leave; ratification vote pending [ESPN]
F1 cancels Bahrain and Saudi Arabian GPs amid Middle East conflict, risks ~$200M loss (Mar. 16th)
Combined cancellations create a 5-week schedule gap between Japan and Miami
Guggenheim estimates $200M revenue hit; Saudi and Bahrain fees reported at a total ~$107M annually [SportsPro]
NBA moves toward expansion vote for Las Vegas and Seattle franchises, targets 2028-29 launch (Mar. 16th)
Expansion fees projected at $7–$10B, split among 30 owners; each franchise could net $300M+
First BoG vote next week requires 23/30 approvals; second vote later this year would finalize a 32-team league [FOS]
PSG owner QSI, Saudi PIF, and RedBird Capital reportedly enter NBA Europe bid race ahead of March 31st deadline (Mar. 16th)
QSI is reportedly working actively on a franchise bid; NBA eyes fall 2027 launch
PIF targets a London-based bid; RedBird Capital reportedly eyes a Milan-based bid [L’Equipe] [TheAthletic]
Apollo Sports Capital closes majority acquisition of Atlético de Madrid, commits up to €100M in fresh capital (Mar. 12th)
Apollo takes majority stake; Quantum Pacific Group remains second-largest shareholder
€100M equity injection to fund Ciudad del Deporte infrastructure + squad investment; Gil and Cerezo retain leadership [Apollo]
Mercedes joins bidding race for Otro Capital's 24% stake in Alpine F1 Team (Mar. 13th)
Flavio Briatore confirms 3–4 interested buyers, including Mercedes and Christian Horner-linked group, among suitors
The 24% stake includes Maximum Effort Investments (Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney), RedBird Capital Partners (AC Milan), and Otro Capital (Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Anthony Joshua, and Rory McIlroy) [TheAthletic]
San Diego Padres sale narrows to four bidders, deal could top $3B by April (Mar. 13th)
Four finalist groups toured team facilities this week; final bids expected mid-April
José E. Feliciano (Chelsea/Clearlake), Friedkin Group, and Warriors’ Joe Lacob were among the previously identified suitors [TheAthletic]
Carolina Hurricanes discloses three minority owners in 12.5% stake sale (Mar. 12th)
Stake values franchise at $2.66B; ~$332.5M transaction, per Sportico
Buyers include asset manager Brett Jefferson, retired insurance exec Marc Grandisson, and ex-NHLer Bobby Farnham [NHL]
Bundesliga teams with creator-led sports watch-alongs platform Creator Sports Network to stream live matches to Canadian fans (Mar. 12th)
Partnership runs through the end of 2025-26 season; streams free on YouTube and Twitch via top creators including ZwebackHD, Box2Box, and Bugs
Bundesliga Canada fanbase up 83% since 2018-19; model mirrors successful rollouts in UK and Brazil [DFL]
Phoenix Suns ownership dispute heads to binding mediation; Ishbia poised to reach 96% control (Mar. 18th)
Mediation could result in Ishbia buying out Scott Seldin and Andy Kohlberg’s combined 13% minority stake; owners previously sought $825M, implying a $6B+ team valuation vs. Ishbia's $4B purchase price (2023) [ESPN]
NWSL to award 18th franchise in 2026, targeting 2028 debut (Mar. 12th)
Average NWSL club now valued at $184M, up 179% since 2023
Haslam family (Browns/Crew), among Ohio-based groups exploring bids [SportsPro]
Steve Tisch & family seek NFL approval to transfer 23.1% Giants stake to children's trusts (Mar. 11th)
Steve, Laurie, and Jonathan Tisch would hold no remaining ownership interest upon completion [ESPN]
Angel Reese joins Australian NBL’s Brisbane Bullets ownership group (Mar. 14th)
Reese joins alongside co-owners Jason Levien and Ben Haan; adds to Reese's portfolio, including USL’s DC Power FC and TOGETHXR [NBL]
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STARTUPS & VENTURE CAPITAL
Photo: NBA legend Tracy McGrady raises $5M-7M for his ‘Ones Basketball League’.
Tracy McGrady's 1-on-1 ‘Ones Basketball League’ secures $5M-7M from investment firm Next Gen Sports to relaunch (Mar. 18th)
McGrady self-funded ~$5M prior to deal; Next Gen takes minority stake
League launches May 15th in Orlando; ownership group includes Vince Carter, John Wall, Tim Hardaway Sr., and Quinn Cook, among others [Sportico]
Solo60, a private micro-gym network startup, raises $3.3M in funding (Mar. 16th)
Funding will support expansion into Ireland, DACH, Stockholm, and the US; London-based startup operates 20+ app-bookable private gym sites, targeting ~80 locations across the city [Athletech]
SPORTL, a pay-as-you-train fitness booking app, raises £250K Pre-Seed funding to expand across the UK (Mar. 11th)
Funds earmarked for UK city expansion and in-house senior hires; live with 50 studios, no membership is required to book classes
Investment backed by angels Kevin Hewitt, James Hardy, and Jamie Hearne [Vestbee]
Aiko, a Singapore sports intelligence startup, closes $1.5M in Pre-Seed funding to scale real-time broadcast tools (Mar. 11th)
Funding will boost product development and support international expansion
Platform converts live match data into automated narratives, highlights, and multilingual commentary aids; strategic partnerships in place with Microsoft, AMD, and Verizon Business [BNA]
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M&A AND INVESTMENTS
Photo: Ariel Investments targets $1B fundraise for Project Level, the largest-ever women’s sports fund. Pictured is Ariel Investments co-CEO Mellody Hobson.
Ariel Investments targets $1B for Project Level, the largest-ever women's sports fund spanning teams & leagues, youth sports, and sports-adjacent businesses (Mar. 16th)
Fund hit $250M first close in February, with second close expected Q2; early investments include Denver Summit FC and LOVB [Sportico]
Cynosure | Checketts Sports Capital, a $1.2B PE fund, targets golf and women's sports investments (Mar. 18th)
Dave Checketts eyes minority stakes; cites PGA Tour ($12.9B valuation) and LIV Golf [SportsPro]
NWSL’s Denver Summit FC raises $40M in private debt to finance practice facility (Mar. 13th)
Marks one of the first private placements by a women's sports franchise
CommonSpirit Health naming rights back the bond sale; deal arranged by Mesirow Financial [Bloomberg]
USL club Sporting JAX forms real estate subsidiary to develop $500M privately funded stadium district (Mar. 18th)
15K-seat stadium anchors the planned 150-acre mixed-use development near St. Johns Town Center
Project privately funded by ownership group including Tim Tebow, Fred Taylor, and Momentous Sports; environmental approvals still pending [SBJ]
JOA, a social sports gaming startup, acquires fan engagement GreenPark Sports (Mar. 17th)
Fuels JOA’s ambitions to build a live link layer for engaging with live sports; move follows GreenPark's previous raise of $31M Series B in 2021
Previous backers include ADvantage, Phoenix Capital Ventures, 359 Capital, and Galaxy Interactive, among others [JOA]
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STRATEGIC VENTURES
Photo: Kalshi partners with ShotQuality, a real-time intelligence platform using multi-agent AI to transform live broadcasts into structured data.
ShotQuality, a sportsbook's intelligence platform, partners with Kalshi to power real-time AI event intelligence for prediction markets (Mar. 11th)
Platform ingests live event data streams and converts them into structured, decision-grade signals for trading workflows; expands ShotQuality's reach across NFL, NBA, MLB, NCAA, and Tennis [ShotQuality]
X Games League kicks off its athlete draft at Cosm LA (Mar. 12th)
LA, New York, São Paulo, and Tokyo’s city-based teams draft 10 athletes each, across BMX and skateboarding
MoonPay as title sponsor; athletes receive $2.5K in XO Cash stablecoin, with debut season beginning in June in Sacramento [SBJ]
NFL reportedly seeks $1B+ annual increase from CBS as broadcast renegotiations kick off ahead of 2029 opt-out (Mar. 16th)
CBS currently pays $2.1B/year; NFL pushes for ~$3B (50% uplift) ahead of 2026 season
Fox may face similar ask next; NBC and ESPN expected to resist comparable increases on SNF and MNF packages [SportsPro]
CFTC opens rule-making process for sports prediction markets, begins 45-day public comment period (Mar. 13th)
Move follows the AGA’s letter issuances to pro leagues, warning them of prediction markets' commercial partnerships [SBJ]
NFL launches Draft Innovation Challenge to crowdsource fan engagement tech via Innovation Hub (Mar. 18th)
3 finalists pitch at NFL Draft in Pittsburgh (April 24); winner gains pilot opportunity
Challenge spans fan personalization, local commerce, and event discovery [SBJ]
FIFA partners with YouTube for 2026 World Cup digital reach via highlights, archive, and creator access (Mar. 17th)
Media partners can live stream the first 10 minutes of every match; select full matches also available on YouTube
Deal spans extended highlights, BTS, video-on-demand content, and ‘creator-lens’ viewing experiences [Youtube]
PGA Tour tests AI-automated video production at Players Championship, eyes full rollout (Mar. 13th)
‘Agentic Production’ automates coverage of holes 3 and 17 at TPC Sawgrass using ShotLink data
Currently, only ~30% of PGA Tour shots reach broadcast; AI aims to close the gap across all holes over the next year [SBJ]
MLB elevates robot umpire checked-swing challenge system to Triple-A for 2026 season (Mar. 16th)
Techn moves up from Class A; league also testing repositioned second base to shorten base paths by 9 inches
Additional tests include reduced pitcher disengagements, stricter batter timeouts, and starting pitcher re-entry rules [SBJ]
Peyton Manning's Omaha Productions and Overtime team up on Sac State Men’s BB docuseries (Mar. 12th)
6-part series Fear Nothing: Sac State debuts May 1st; features Shaq as GM and Mike Bibby as head coach
Highlights player Mikey Williams' comeback story; produced alongside Network Studios and Ben Sosenko [FOS]
Pac-12 strikes data partnership with Genius Sports, entering sportsbook data sales market (Mar. 17th)
Deal covers football and basketball venues; includes GeniusIQ tracking, digital marketing, and integrity monitoring [PAC12]
Peloton Commercial Series launches, entering the gym floor market with connected bikes and treadmills (Mar. 16th)
Move follows creation of dedicated commercial unit (Peloton’s Commercial Business Unit) via Precor acquisition; targets high-traffic gym environments [Peloton]
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JOB BOARD
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Now - here are some cool roles we found and personally curated this week. Enjoy!