FEATURED STORY
The Next Citadel Will Trade Touchdowns, Not Tickers
Happy Thanksgiving. With the slew of sports programming over the next few days, we thought a fun topic to write about that you can read on your day off is:
Prediction Markets are going to create the next Citadel. And the motherlode of opportunity sits in sports.
Yes, there’s already plenty of noise about prediction markets and the regulatory arms race between Kalshi & Polymarket. Rather than recap the CFTC drama, we want to zoom in on a corner almost nobody is talking about:
How prediction markets become the trading rails for a new generation of hedge funds - and how teams and leagues can tap into that same data edge.
If you want a comprehensive guide on what prediction markets are, check out the dictionary-like guide by FinFeedAPI or our friends at Will Ventures’ breakdown from a VC lens here.
Prediction Markets ≠ Sportsbooks, they’re like Financial Exchanges
Four facts set this stage:
Kalshi just hit a $11B valuation after raising $1B this month.
Polymarket is supposedly seeking new capital at a $12B valuation after being valued at $9B with a $2B investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) - which owns the NYSE.
Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel’s parentco), is worth ~$34.3B and is the largest pure-play betting company in the world.
DraftKings, the second largest, is sitting at a $14.9B market cap.
Kalshi was founded in 2018. Polymarket in 2020. They’re closing in on the value of sportsbooks that took 13-25 years to build.
Comparing prediction markets to sportsbooks like FanDuel & DraftKings is already outdated. Structurally, Kalshi and Polymarket look more like exchanges + data companies:
They monetize the data exhaust - every tick of the order book becomes a real-time probability feed on the world.
They match buyers and sellers of event contracts.
They clear trades and charge fees on volume.
Why Prediction Markets Will Spawn the Next Citadel
Citadel, Jane Street, Susquehanna, Jump, etc. all did some version of the same thing:
Founded a venue with structurally underpriced information.
Built machines to quote prices and provide liquidity at scale.
Printed money on microscopic but persistent edges.
Prediction markets are that venue, but with a twist:
Instead of trading earnings, rates, and macro, you’re trading discrete outcomes:
Will the Lakers win tonight?
Will Brent oil average above $90 next quarter?
Will Apple launch a new product this year?
Will Zohran Mamdani win the NYC mayoral race?
This year alone, trading volume across the major prediction markets has surpassed $27.9B.
Surprisingly, Goldman Sachs has already used Polymarket’s pricing as an input to model the odds of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and the knock-on impact on oil.
At this rate, someone is going to stand up a fully-fledged event-driven prop shop whose PnL is 60-70% derived from prediction-market flows, not just from stocks and options.
And the biggest, cleanest category on those exchanges?
Sports.
Why Prediction Market Data Could Be the Bedrock for Teams
Sports has everything prediction markets crave:
A dense calendar of events (games, injuries, trades, awards).
Global liquidity and fan attention.
Rich structured stats and video feeds for model-building.
A retail user base that already thinks in probabilities and point spreads.
As prediction markets go mainstream, sports-related markets could easily trade with equity-like velocity. Billions of retail and institutional dollars will constantly reprice:
Win probabilities
Player performance
Injury odds
Coaching changes
Trade and free-agency scenarios
The trillions of data points from that activity are the overlooked piece. That’s where the opportunity emerges for teams and leagues, not just hedge funds.
Why Teams Should Treat Prediction Markets Like a New Data Feed
Think of Kalshi/Polymarket as public, continuously updated votes on your franchise’s future, priced in dollars instead of survey responses.
Crucially, unlike a regulated sportsbook, these exchanges expose the full microstructure:
Trading volume
Bid/ask spreads
Live probability curves
Order-book moves around news
Price movements
Open interest by outcome
That transparency unlocks several tangible use-cases:
Player Valuation & Win Expectations: Teams can quantify how trade speculation or an injury correlates with win-probability. For example, the Eagles could evaluate how A.J. Brown trade rumors affects their championship expectations by comparing response of two event contracts:
Will the Eagles trade A.J. Brown before the trade deadline?
Will the Eagles win the Superbowl?
If the trade-rumor contract spikes from 8% → 15% at the same time Eagle SB probability drops from 20% → 15%, you could isolate the magnitude of trading AJ Brown’s effect on win-expectations. It’s analogous to Wall Street measuring the correlation between Fed rate expectations and treasury yields.
Fan Sentiment & Brand Strength: Teams already track social engagement, viewership, and ticket conversions. But prediction markets reveal how fans actually feel because they “put their money where their mouth is”.
On exchanges, you can see order volume for or against your team at any moment, whether rumors trigger sharp swings in win probabilities, or if retail traders (typically fans) double down after bad news.
If a brand is strong, implied volatility stays low (e.g., Baltimore Ravens’ division odds remained steady despite starting 1-5). If the brand is weak, odds become hypersensitive to small events — fans are uncertain about the team’s trajectory.
In-Game Decision-making: Because prediction markets adjust live probabilities in real time, teams can get real-time feedback on decision quality, immediate reactions to play-calling, and market-calibrated win probabilities for 4th downs, timeouts, last drives, etc.
Front offices will now have timely, market-proofed data evaluating decision-making quality throughout games.
Will Teams Actually Hedge on Prediction Markets?
Hedging is where this gets morally and legally murky - but also intellectually fascinating.
Corporations already use derivatives to hedge operational risk:
Airlines hedge fuel.
Food companies & farmers hedge commodities.
Exporters hedge FX.
Teams face analogous exposures:
Injury risk on a star who drives ticket sales and media value.
Playoff qualification that triggers big revenue swings.
Performance bonuses that impact payroll.
In theory, prediction markets could become a layer of insurance:
A team extends a star QB on a massive deal.
They buy event contracts like “Will QB X miss 8+ games this season?”
If disaster strikes, those contracts pay out, offsetting part of the financial hit.
Today, leagues and CBA rules would almost certainly frown on direct team participation in these markets. And regulators are still figuring out which contracts are legally “hedging tools” vs. unregistered gambling. But regardless, there is clearly a landscape for the next-generation of hedge funds to emerge by trading sports events contracts, and an opportunity for team owners & execs to be strategically innovative.
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LEAGUES & TEAMS
Photo: Real Madrid’s President Florentino Pérez announced plans to sell a ~5% stake to external investors.
Real Madrid plans to sell a ~5% stake to external investors, partners with Apple for an immersive documentary via Vision Pro (Nov. 21st-23rd)
Proposal creates new subsidiary with current socios retaining full control; subject to approval, the move would alter the club’s ownership structure after 123 years
NBA Europe expected to open franchise bidding in Q1 2026, per Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum; ManU reportedly ‘agrees’ to launch a franchise (Nov. 18th-19th)
Franchise fees expected to be $500M-$1B; league advised by JPMorgan and Raine
2027 launch pending NBA/FIBA approvals; Man Utd ‘agreement’ comes as the NBA seeks football clubs; PSG, Man City, and existing Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich teams said to be in talks [SBJ] [InsiderSport]
Project B, the new ‘F1 of women’s basketball’, signs Sophie Cunningham and its first three international players following WNBA star signings (Nov. 21st-25th)
Sophie becomes the competition’s eighth signing, reaches ~3M followers across socials
International superstars Brazil’s Kamilla Cardoso, France’s Janelle Salaun, and China’s Li Meng have also signed
MLB lands ~$800M/year in media rights deals with NBC, ESPN & Netflix (Nov. 19th)
Paramount obtains UK & German UEFA Champions League rights in £1.9B deal (Nov. 21st)
Paramount wins majority of UCL matches in the UK and Germany from 2027-31
Move boosts Paramount’s European scale spanning the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain (worth ~$2.8B/year) [TheAthletic]
Tom Brady-backed Birmingham City pursues major venue-led expansion, declares plans for a £1.2B ($1.6B) multi-purpose ‘Powerhouse Stadium’ (Nov. 21st)
62K-seat multipurpose venue slated for the 2030/31 season
Plan features a retractable roof, NFL-ready pitch, and boxing/concert configuration; surrounding district to include training center, women’s stadium, housing, and hotel [SportsPro]
Juventus raises €97.8M ($112.9M) to support the club’s multi-year strategic plan via stock sale (Nov. 21st)
Club issues 37.9M new shares at €2.58 each, equal to 9.1% post-deal capital
Funds support management’s strategy until 2027, reducing debt and maintaining the club's competitiveness; owners Exor (65.4%) and Tether (11.5%) fully subscribed [Reuters]
Serie A club Cagliari Calcio receives backing from a US-based investor group for a minority stake (Nov. 21st)
Deal brings in a consortium led by Sardinian (IT) native Maurizio Fiori of Praxis Capital Management
Funds will back new stadium development and long-term structural growth [CagliariCalcio]
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STARTUPS & VENTURE CAPITAL
Photo: Enhanced Games set to go public via SPAC merger at a $1B+ valuation.
Enhanced Games, a PED-permitting Olympics-style startup, set to go public in a SPAC merger at a $1B+ valuation, $800M antitrust lawsuit dropped (Nov. 19th-26th)
Enhanced will reportedly merge with Hong Kong–based A Paradise Acquisition (SPAC); the SPAC raised $200M in its July IPO
Function Health, a longevity-focused platform offering lab testing and diagnostic services, raises $298M in Series B funding at a $2.5B valuation (Nov. 19th)
Funds fuel its new MI Lab, integrating labs, imaging, wearables & medical records into an AI-driven medical intelligence platform
Investment led by Redpoint Ventures; other investors include HartBeat Ventures, Magic Johnson, Zac Efron, among others [FunctionHealth]
NBA Africa’s second ‘Triple-Double Accelerator’ announces its 10 startup finalists at a Demo Day at Carnegie Mellon University Africa (Nov. 25th)
Finalists from 700+ applications span Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa; five winners to receive funding and join CMU-Africa’s 12-month incubation program
Program spans early-stage tech in sports, fitness, VR, athlete data, and creative industries [NBA]
SportAI, a B2B sports startup leveraging AI and computer vision for racket sports performance analysis, raises $3M in funding (Nov. 25th)
Funding to scale global rollout and expand its technical development; SportAI’s partnerships include MATCHi, Save My Play, and Shark
Investment backed by Altitude Capital, Casper Ruud, Alejandro Bedoya, Magnus Carlsen, and Endre Holen, among others [SportAI]
Sprocket Sports, an all-in-one club management software provider for youth sports, raises Series A funding (Nov. 19th)
Funds to expand product suite and grow sales and service teams
Investment backed by vertical SaaS-focused growth equity firm Frontier Growth [SprocketSports]
Rebuildr, a proactive physical therapy software startup, raises $1.1M in funding (Nov. 24th)
Funding supports the expansion of daily-use PT infrastructure and clinician training, with possible in-person expansion
Investment backed by Slow Ventures’ Creator Fund [Athletech]
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M&A
Photo: Mexico’s Liga de Fútbol American (American football) receives $100M in PE capital.
Mexico’s Liga de Fútbol Americano (American football) receives $100M commitment from PE firm Global Sports Capital Partners (Nov. 25th)
Investment grants GSCP full operational control to grow LFA’s commercial business; GSCP to deploy $100M over 7 years to the premier American football league in Mexico
Move marks the first US PE firm investment in a pro Mexican league; deal follows Ryan Kalil & Blake Griffin acquiring LFA team Osos Monterrey [GSCP]
College sports marketing company Learfield reportedly eyes a potential sale, partners with Texas Tech for a new corporate partnerships unit (Nov. 20th-21st)
Firm considers minority stake sale or full sale; Moelis & BofA tapped as advisors
Debt cut to ~$500M following its $1.1B recapitalization, with leverage down to ~3.5–4x EBITDA after restructuring
Warner Bros. Discovery reportedly eyes elevated second-round bids amid its sale process (Nov. 26th)
Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix asked to submit enhanced offers by Dec. 1; sports rights slate includes the MLB, NHL, UCL, Big Ten, and NASCAR, among others
Paramount, the only party seeking the full company, reportedly submits its fourth offer for WBD, following its $23.50-per-share bid [FOS]
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STRATEGIC VENTURES
Photo: Robinhood partners with SIG to build its own prediction market.
Robinhood partners with quant trading firm Susquehanna International to build its own prediction market, acquires derivatives exchange and clearinghouse LedgerX (Nov. 26th)
Robinhood adds 27M funded accounts to a CFTC-regulated betting exchange
Acquisition gives Robinhood full control of exchange infrastructure, boosting fee capture and allowing nationwide event-betting expansion [InGame]
Overtime teams up with ESPN and Peyton Manning’s Omaha Productions to launch the ‘Overtime Nationals High School Football Championship’ (Nov. 21st)
ESPN to broadcast, Omaha to produce, and Overtime to organize the event
National HS title game debuts Dec. 10 at UA Stadium (Corner Canyon vs. St. Frances); winner earns a $250K athletic-program donation [SBJ]
Players Era, a non-conference college basketball tournament, partners with the Big 12 for equity and guaranteed bids (Nov. 24th)
Big 12 receives equity stake in Players Era, as it expands its November championship
Deal grants Big 12 eight automatic bids annually from 2026-2030; Players Era to pay over $50M in rights fees over six years [Big12]
French streamer Zack Nani secures rights for top-notch South American soccer finals, Copa Libertadores & Sudamericana (Nov. 24th)
Finals to stream free on Twitch & YouTube, reaching 1.6M+ combined followers; adds to Nani’s portfolio including Saudi Pro League & French U21 matches
Fee undisclosed; Nani’s production company reportedly paid a six-figure sum for the 2025/26 SPL season [SportsPro]
Saudi Fund for Development and FIFA sign MoU to pledge up to $1B in concessional loans for FIFA-certified sports infrastructure (Nov. 24th)
Funding targets football (soccer) facility builds and upgrades in developing nations; loans to act as seed capital to attract private and multilateral partners [FIFA]
Whisper, a UK-based global sports and entertainment producer, opens a US hub ahead of a potential sale (Nov. 20th)
Projects include Built in Birmingham: Brady & the Blues, alongside Religion of Sports
Whisper launches LA base; KPMG tapped as an advisor on a possible full sale, with deal targeted before year-end [Deadline]
ASB GlassFloor, an interactive sports venue LED floor developer, opens a new 35K-sq-ft Orlando training facility (Nov. 21st)
New Athletes Lab 2.0 expands from one court (glass) to full glass + hardwood setup
Facility centers testing of LED-embedded LumiFlex courts with pro/college athletes
Builds on NBA All-Star usage and EuroLeague club installations of ASB’s video courts [SBJ]
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JOB BOARD
Here are some cool roles we found and personally curated this week — enjoy!