Why The Indian Premier League is the Next NFL

“When will the media rights bubble pop?” 

This is a question we hear get asked at every single sport business conference that The 4th Quarter has attended.

Bear case logic: streaming and broadcasting platforms are already stretched too thin. At some point, the price will get too high. Rights values can’t keep compounding at this rate forever. And with league valuations tied to media rights value, franchise valuations will stagnate long-term.

While presumptuous, it's a fair question. A hard one to answer for U.S. leagues right now, where the NFL, NBA, and WNBA are all still early innings of their media rights cycles (and we’ll have see how these NFL media rights renegotiations go).

But for the IPL – the biggest cricket league in the world – we’ve just got our answer, and it’s not what anyone expected.

According to a recent report by Media Partners Asia, the IPL’s upcoming 2028-32 rights cycle is projected to hold flat at $5.4B (~$1.1B per year). No growth, despite the league expanding its regular season from 14 to 18 games and crossing 1B+ digital viewers in 2025 – a 60% jump YoY.

And get this… media rights account for 75% of an IPL’s franchise revenue. If rights are flat, you’d expect valuations to follow.

Investors don’t think so.

This week, the Rajasthan Royals officially sold to the Mittal-Poonawalla consortium at $1.65B, a 24.6x return over nearly two decades. Last month, the Royal Challengers Bengaluru sold to an Aditya-Birla-led consortium, which includes Blackstone and David Blitzer, for a record $1.78B, cementing the arrival of U.S. capital into the IPL.

So how do you square a stagnant media rights deal with franchise valuations that keep soaring?

For all its scale and profitability, the IPL is still – in its own way – an emerging league with underdeveloped revenue lines to where a property of this scale should be.

In this article, we’ll break down what levers IPL ownership will pull to grow franchise value when the biggest revenue line may not move.

First, let’s answer the obvious question: why are U.S. investors, even major PE funds like Blackstone, paying $1.5B+ per franchise for a cricket league in India?

Front Office Sports published a great article How Private Equity Fell in Love With Indian Cricket that broke it all down. 

Here’s the short version:

Another reason to note – the league’s financial and viewership scale is like none other:

So why are media rights stagnating, then?

For one, India's two biggest broadcast and streaming platforms – Viacom18 and Disney Star – merged in 2024, collapsing the bidding competition the IPL relied on to push rights fees higher. 

Second, advertising revenue has decelerated to a 7% CAGR, down from 18% in the prior rights cycle. This can be attributed to the Indian government  banning real-money gaming and crypto advertising, stripping two of the IPL's biggest ad categories.

Third, India's CPM is structurally lower than the U.S. or Europe. Yes , the country’s fast-growing middle class and overall spending will scale advertising spend long-term. But India’s broadcast giants are already absorbing $1.8-2B in losses over the current rights cycle – there's no room to write a bigger check, even as the audience scales.

The surface read is that the IPL is a mature league: stable, profitable, heavily media-rights-anchored. 

But that framing misses something.

No mature league is as dependent on a single revenue line. In the NBA, NFL, and MLB, broadcast revenue sits alongside robust ticket, sponsorship, and commercial income. In the IPL, media rights account for 75% of franchise revenue vs. 40-50% in American leagues.

What this tells us is that there’s a lot of runway left.

And these three levers are where new ownership groups are going to optimize:

Here’s how they play out.

A unique aspect of the IPL is that none of its franchises own their stadiums. They lease from state cricket associations – non-profit bodies affiliated with the BCCI – who legally own and operate the grounds. Ticket revenue is split: 80% to the franchise, 20% to the state association.

While this might seem like a headwind, institutional capital has become a major catalyst for stadium renovations.

Take the Royal Challengers Bengaluru, who play at M. Chinnaswamy Stadium – owned by the State Government of Karnataka and operated by the Karnataka State Cricket Association (KSCA). 

Just weeks after the Birla-Blitzer-Blackstone acquisition, the KSCA president announced a major renovation plan, expanding capacity from 34K → 54K. 

It's about time. The stadium was built in the 1970s and long overdue for an upgrade. 

And given the new ownership group's pedigree in real estate and premium experiences — Blitzer's deep stadium portfolio across global sports and Blackstone's position as the largest commercial real estate operator in India, expect a significant boost in amenities, premium seating, and the overall fan experience.

And that wasn’t the only stadium upgrade announcement in April: 

Eden Gardens (Kolkata Knight Riders)

Wankhede’s New Mumbai Stadium (Mumbai Indians)

Cricket associations and the Indian government are aligned with the new era of team ownership focused on increasing match-day ticket sales and expand real estate footprint.

IPL has had a rough stint with sponsorships recently.

They’ve lost three of its highest-spending categories in 2024-25:

The IPL generated $105.3M in total sponsorship revenue in 2025 – a per-team average of $10-15M. Compare that to the NFL's ~$78M per team, and the gap is significant.

Three areas where we see real opportunity:

The Athletic reported that theUEFA Champions League is set to surpass $5B in annual media-rights revenue.

$5B.

That’s the prize that comes with building a truly global sport. Cricket – despite being the second most popular sport in the world – doesn’t have that infrastructure yet. A cricket Champions League tried (Champions League Twenty20, discontinued 2014) and failed.

But there is groundwork being laid, largely funded by IPL ownership:

With cricket returning to the Olympics at LA28 – for the first time since 1900 – there's a real opportunity to globalize cricket fandom on the world's biggest stage. As these leagues grow and competition rises, the case for a global cup format strengthens.

That could be the biggest unlock for an entirely new tier of media rights value.

The IPL debuted on April 18th, 2008, nearly 20 years ago. Cricket felt like a dying sport globally, kept alive almost entirely by India.

Today, the IPL is one of the most valuable sports leagues in the world, drawing some of the largest institutional investors in the U.S.

A lot can happen in 20 years. For the investors buying in now, the time horizon is long – and the upside case is real: a globalized sport with a cricket Champions League, world-class stadium districts across India, and a league valued at $100B at the center of it.

We'll just have to wait and see.

75% Rajasthan Royals stake sold to billionaire Lakshmi Mittal family-led group at $1.65B valuation (May 5th)

Top ATP and WTA stars threaten Grand Slam boycott amid escalating fight over rev share and player compensation (May 5th)

Kalshi raises $1B in Series F funding at a $22B valuation (May 7th)

Bathhouse, a sauna+cold plunge contrast experience center, raises $35M in funding (May 5th)

Apollo Sports Capital and Dundon Capital Partners invest $225M into MLP & PPA Tour parentco Pickleball Inc, at a $750M valuation (May 1st)

William Blair enters agreement to acquire sports-focused boutique investment bank Inner Circle Sports (May 5th)

[Prediction Markets] Federal court sides with Kalshi/CFTC against Arizona, Kalshi launches Inner Circle + new customer protection stack, DraftKings doubles down on microbets for prediction markets (May 4th-5th)

Gatorade partners with Venus Williams to launch ‘Body of Science’, a women’s sports health and hydration research initiative (May 4th)

If you find our weekly job board helpful, join the T4Q Talent Network.

Now - here are some cool roles we found and personally curated this week. Enjoy!

1. Relay Ventures - Investment Analyst, Sports & Entertainment

2. Soros Fund Management - Media Partnerships & Investments Team: $200K

3. Fenway Sports Management - Manager, Strategy & Portfolio Operations

4. Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment - Sr. Manager, Strategy: $140K

5. Struck Capital (Leonardo DiCaprio) - Investment Team

6. RWS Global - Entertainment Strategy Lead

7. NBA - Strategic Planning & Operations: $230K

8. Gym Class - General Manager, Product: $250K

9. Professional Bull Riders - VP, Brand Strategy & Marketing: 10+ Years of Experience

10. U.S. Ski and Snowboard Association - VP of Commercial Partnerships: 10+ Years of Exp